Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.310676 22.029872 23.883348 26.039830 28.492204 31.208987 34.466756
2025-09-21 17.454337 19.790112 22.481096 25.848496 30.004495 35.041219 41.727895
2025-09-28 16.053246 18.865368 22.287285 26.845826 32.901589 40.892203 52.645532
2025-10-05 14.534149 17.533404 21.334430 26.647388 34.132529 44.736691 61.815365
2025-10-12 13.399101 16.515424 20.600589 26.550066 35.377684 48.725848 72.193157
2025-10-19 12.626476 15.865809 20.244309 26.868613 37.196076 53.853908 85.945746
2025-10-26 11.824102 15.085593 19.603184 26.653445 38.109302 57.649104 98.561311
2025-11-02 11.127782 14.384523 18.992292 26.383121 38.849396 61.247609 112.112486
2025-11-09 10.598867 13.872827 18.600210 26.388158 40.021705 65.858231 129.886672
2025-11-16 10.074170 13.324879 18.100140 26.149238 40.705498 69.645696 147.531481
2025-11-23 9.632021 12.865662 17.693501 26.011179 41.536111 73.916256 168.923901
2025-11-30 9.224840 12.430813 17.287956 25.825141 42.235040 78.061757 192.692903
2025-12-07 8.860380 12.047187 16.948171 25.742591 43.178163 83.172478 224.408152
2025-12-14 8.488443 11.631433 16.528505 25.477575 43.718074 87.502979 257.671988
2025-12-21 8.377660 11.614001 16.756722 26.420246 46.986125 100.100534 343.839638
2025-12-28 8.066036 11.260122 16.396163 26.212507 47.672098 105.763952 405.031463
2026-01-04 7.797549 10.960542 16.106787 26.111752 48.590107 112.509208 487.379417
2026-01-11 7.616451 10.791948 16.029974 26.420215 50.542598 123.440278 632.522744
2026-01-18 7.366138 10.496960 15.712340 26.209251 51.173940 130.173988 767.686177
2026-01-25 7.124985 10.205771 15.383788 25.945041 51.629915 136.543391 931.885158
2026-02-01 6.939180 9.998141 15.192181 25.949786 52.803632 146.365677 1213.341826
2026-02-08 6.731271 9.744066 14.901626 25.716545 53.295008 153.708339 1529.503550
2026-02-15 6.549465 9.526526 14.665907 25.581770 54.047448 162.724721 2019.722565